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What coup? The coup that Thaksin has slyly warned about?
That’s the question that anti-Red Shirts and royalist Yellow Shirts, and even the army, are asking. Will Thailand have yet another coup on top of the nearly dozen-and-a-half in the past – each engineered to uphold the nation, its religion and its monarchy, but most suspiciously to ensure national security. Of course, each coup retains the influence of the military-backed elite over all aspects of life in the kingdom.
With national security now assisted by over 1 million citizen volunteers spying on one another, observers are wondering what could possibly endanger national security.
Over the past few months Thaksin, a popular criminal fugitive, has been stoking fires of dissatisfaction through his own online and other public media efforts. These have been reinforced by his supporters inside and outside Thailand.
Thaksin recently told his countrymen that he may have to create a government-in-exile to work toward returning to Thailand to right the many wrongs that he maintains – ironically, quite correctly – are being perpetrated upon the Thai people. Necessary corrections, he says, include his own pardon and those of 111 members of the Thai Rak Thai party that Thai courts ordered dissolved.
The problem is that everyone knows, through sheer common sense, that once Thaksin returns and regains power a lot of people are going to pay for stopping him, through the 2006 coup, from becoming the country’s greatest dictator since Field Marshall Sarit Thanarat in the early1960s.
Thaksin talks a good talk but his track record belies his claims and assurances. Recall when U.S. President George W. Bush cautioned the Thaksin government about human rights violations? “Mind your own business!” was Thaksin’s response.
The Red Shirts, often beginning to dress and act just like Mao’s Chinese Communists, are a threat to the status quo because of the apparent permanent divisiveness they are causing. Their movement has become a combination of anti-elitist, pro-socialist and simultaneously pro-democratic messages.
Red Shirts have steadily attacked the king’s chief adviser, Privy Council President Gen. Prem Tinsulalonda, claiming that Prem – besides being gay – was behind the last coup. Other Privy Council members, none of whom is permitted by regulation to be a member of any human rights organization, are also under fire.
There are several reasons that the Red Shirt tactics appear to be gathering steam. First is a growing realization, arising from continued political protests, that democracy is indeed better than the political governance Thailand has had so far. Even some apathetic die-hards are waking up to recognize that all the name-calling and accusations are kind of fascinating to watch to see how they are resolved. This is part of democracy – a divisiveness that pulls people apart to allow them to do their own thinking. Traditionalists are condemning it, however, as being un-Thai.
Secondly, despite government claims of being able to handle “the situation,” serious social and political issues are plaguing the country. Drugs are making a huge comeback, and Thailand’s deputy national police commander recently commented that nothing could be done about the upsurge.
Brush fire-like disturbing news – multiple factories leaking gas into surrounding neighborhoods; the mass poisoning of schoolchildren from drugs given to them so they can relax; runaway drug problems; perceived double standards and corruption among members of the Privy Council; and more imminent corruption in state infrastructure projects – are having an impact.
Add to these social unrest and questions about the ability of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajva’s Democrat-led government to govern. People are beginning to wonder whether any government, except one led by Thaksin, can really handle the country’s problems and restore prosperity. This wondering is the wedge that Thaksin seems to have finally created in domestic Thai politics.
Despite having besmirched Thaksin with accusations that he is disloyal to the monarchy, the Thai state and government both find that he just won’t go away. He is as persistent as the mounting political problems. In fact, Thaksin may be gaining more credibility because of this dual persistence.
People – and not only those upcountry where Thaksin’s support is huge – are asking why Thaksin can’t be brought back to resolve the current situation since the military and government appear unable to do so.
Support for Thaksin and other issues in the kingdom have been under discussion on academic websites like New Mandala and Prachatai, as well as several Thai language websites. One web board has even suggested that the pro-Thaiksin northeast region of the country, containing one-third of its population, may secede from Thailand.
This is farfetched at best, but the idea underscores the differences between Bangkok’s ruling elite and the rural folk; differences that have existed for centuries. The current regime’s harsh military and police-enforced social engineering will not preserve freedom and democracy for the country’s people.
It appears at the moment that Thaksin’s image is the main obstacle to calming public dissatisfaction with the way things are going. But this image is largely in the minds of those currently keeping him out of the country. If, in their minds, it becomes impossible to handle the country without compromising their opposition to Thaksin, they will cave in. But this won’t be an easy task.
Illustrating another kind of Thai misuse of its military, this week a small group of members of the Student Federation of Thailand protested in front of the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok. They were asking for a halt to U.S. military sales to the country, claiming that to date weapons have been used largely to put down legitimate pro-democracy protests.
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(Frank G. Anderson is the Thailand representative of American Citizens Abroad. He was a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer to Thailand from 1965-67, working in community development. A freelance writer and founder of northeast Thailand's first local English language newspaper, the Korat Post – www.thekoratpost.com – he has spent over eight years in Thailand "embedded" with the local media. He has an MBA in information management and an associate degree in construction technology. ©Copyright Frank G. Anderson.)
